Insights

October’s positive uptrend in the stock market has been a welcome respite. As of yesterday’s close, October’s month-to-date performance of the S&P 500 has basically made up for September’s decline. On a total return basis, the index is up 9.4% year-to-date and has gained 18.5% over the past 12 months. That is impressive performance considering we continue to live under COVID-19 rule in a partially opened economy, and it is only 18 days from a contentious election between two radically different candidates.

August continued the recovery from the March 23rd bottom, with a total return of 7% for the S&P 500 Index through the end of the month. The index reached new all-time highs on September 2nd but has recently given back some gains.

The rebound in equities from the March lows continues, with major stock indices trading once again near the all-time highs seen in February. Between the sharp first quarter drop and gains since, this leaves the index up 5.6% year-do-date including dividends as of yesterday’s close.

This year has been a turbulent one, as much of the news and market fluctuations have been centered around the COVID-19 pandemic. Even with COVID-19 still very much in the news, investors are already starting to look beyond the virus and out to the election that is several months away.

This week’s announcement by the National Bureau of Economic Research that the U.S. officially entered recession territory in March was no surprise. March was when the shutdowns began, unemployment claims skyrocketed, and subsequent economic readings started to fall dramatically.

The optimistic tone that led markets over the past few weeks was replaced by pessimism earlier this week. Investors were becoming increasingly encouraged by updates on declining COVID-19 case counts, potential vaccine developments, and plans for reopening our economy. This week’s more somber start came from the reminder that we still have a long way to go. Many fear that we will see a renewed wave of cases with the reopening of cities, requiring closures to be reinstated and prolonging our economic shutdown.

Market volatility remains high but has come down significantly from the extreme levels seen last month. Fiscal and monetary programs designed to assist individuals and companies during this engineered cessation of our economy continue to roll out and have helped calm market nerves and restore financial system imbalances.

The stock and bond markets continue to ride on the COVID-19 coronavirus roller coaster that started this year. While the recoveries continue to rise in China, news of an increasing spread of cases in other countries has worsened. Prevention and containment efforts here and abroad, from border closings to event cancelations, are lowering estimates for global economic growth.

With all the gyrations in the markets year-to-date, it seems hard to imagine we are only through the first two months of the year! Investors started the year enjoying six new record closing highs from the S&P 500 in January, only to end the month flat. This was followed by seven additional new closing highs during February, with the last one just seven trading days ago! Stocks have turned negative once again and are now down approximately 9% as of mid-day trading today.

With all the gyrations in the markets year-to-date, it seems hard to imagine we are only through the first two months of the year! Investors started the year enjoying six new record closing highs from the S&P 500 in January, only to end the month flat. This was followed by seven additional new closing highs during February, with the last one just seven trading days ago! Stocks have turned negative once again and are now down approximately 9% as of mid-day trading today.