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May 29, 2020
Weekly jobless claims continue to improve with fewer numbers of workers filing new claims each week. Additionally, continuing jobless claims declined for the first time since the initial spike in March. The S&P 500 gained about 3% during this holiday-shortened week, while bond yields continue to stay at very low levels. If you missed our webinar on Wednesday (Answers to Top Trending Investment Questions), please click the word “Events” at the top of our homepage to access the replay. At the end of next week, the monthly jobs report could show May’s national unemployment rate reached 19%, compared to 14.7% reported for April, but we would expect this to fall in the coming months. If you have any concerns or if your needs are changing, please call us at (937) 435-2742; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
May 29, 2020
Weekly jobless claims continue to improve with fewer numbers of workers filing new claims each week. Additionally, continuing jobless claims declined for the first time since the initial spike in March. The S&P 500 gained about 3% during this holiday-shortened week, while bond yields continue to stay at very low levels. If you missed our webinar on Wednesday (Answers to Top Trending Investment Questions), please click the word “Events” at the top of our homepage to access the replay. At the end of next week, the monthly jobs report could show May’s national unemployment rate reached 19%, compared to 14.7% reported for April, but we would expect this to fall in the coming months. If you have any concerns or if your needs are changing, please call us at (937) 435-2742; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
May 22, 2020
The S&P 500 gained about 3% on Monday, and stocks broadly held onto those gains through the week. The S&P 500 is now down less than 10% in 2020. The market was higher on COVID-19 vaccine hopes and the continued reopening of the global economy. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China increased further at the end of the week as China looked to put additional restrictions on Hong Kong. Weekly initial jobless claims continue to show large numbers of unemployed workers, but each week’s new filings continue to decline. Please click the Events tab above to register for our upcoming webinar: Answers to Top Trending Investment Questions on May 27th at 11am. If you have any concerns or if your needs are changing, please call us at (937) 435-2742; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
May 22, 2020
The S&P 500 gained about 3% on Monday, and stocks broadly held onto those gains through the week. The S&P 500 is now down less than 10% in 2020. The market was higher on COVID-19 vaccine hopes and the continued reopening of the global economy. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China increased further at the end of the week as China looked to put additional restrictions on Hong Kong. Weekly initial jobless claims continue to show large numbers of unemployed workers, but each week’s new filings continue to decline. Please click the Events tab above to register for our upcoming webinar: Answers to Top Trending Investment Questions on May 27th at 11am. If you have any concerns or if your needs are changing, please call us at (937) 435-2742; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
May 15, 2020
The S&P 500 declined over 2% this week, as trade tensions between the U.S. and China increased. Weekly initial jobless claims continue to show large numbers of unemployed workers, but each week’s new filings continue to decline. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments show a willingness from the Fed to do more to support the economy, but he spoke out against negative interest rates as a policy option. We have two webinars coming up this month: the first is Understanding Your PPP Loan on May 20th at 11am; the second is Answers to Top Trending Investment Questions on May 27th at 11am. Please click the Events tab above to register. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
May 15, 2020
The S&P 500 declined over 2% this week, as trade tensions between the U.S. and China increased. Weekly initial jobless claims continue to show large numbers of unemployed workers, but each week’s new filings continue to decline. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments show a willingness from the Fed to do more to support the economy, but he spoke out against negative interest rates as a policy option. We have two webinars coming up this month: the first is Understanding Your PPP Loan on May 20th at 11am; the second is Answers to Top Trending Investment Questions on May 27th at 11am. Please click the Events tab above to register. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
May 8, 2020
Today’s monthly unemployment rate was 14.7%, a significant increase from last month that was widely expected. The underemployment rate, also known as U-6, which is an attempt at measuring those not employed at full capacity, was 22.8%. Both rates could have been much higher if not for the Payroll Protection Program (PPP). Quite a bit is happening in the Treasury market, as the government expects to issue $3 trillion of bonds this quarter to help fund stimulus efforts. As part of the package, the Treasury will issue 20-year bonds for the first time in over 30 years. On the short end, futures contracts predicting the Fed Funds rate in December just dipped into negative territory, compared to the current Fed Funds rate that is just 0.05%. The 2-year Treasury bill hit a new low of 0.1% as well. Even so, the S&P 500 gained over 3% this week as the stock market continues to look forward to an improving economy as businesses start to reopen. The S&P 500 is down about 9% year-to-date and is about 14% below the all-time high set in mid-February. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
May 8, 2020
Today’s monthly unemployment rate was 14.7%, a significant increase from last month that was widely expected. The underemployment rate, also known as U-6, which is an attempt at measuring those not employed at full capacity, was 22.8%. Both rates could have been much higher if not for the Payroll Protection Program (PPP). Quite a bit is happening in the Treasury market, as the government expects to issue $3 trillion of bonds this quarter to help fund stimulus efforts. As part of the package, the Treasury will issue 20-year bonds for the first time in over 30 years. On the short end, futures contracts predicting the Fed Funds rate in December just dipped into negative territory, compared to the current Fed Funds rate that is just 0.05%. The 2-year Treasury bill hit a new low of 0.1% as well. Even so, the S&P 500 gained over 3% this week as the stock market continues to look forward to an improving economy as businesses start to reopen. The S&P 500 is down about 9% year-to-date and is about 14% below the all-time high set in mid-February. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
May 1, 2020
The S&P 500 was nearly unchanged this week, as stocks went up on COVID-19 treatment hopes but down on corporate earnings guidance (or really, on the lack of guidance). Many of the stocks that lagged the most rebounded strongly in the past week, and vice-versa, on hopes for a gradual reopening of the economy in many stocks. Just in the past week about 30% of the S&P 500 companies reported quarterly results, bringing the total to about 55%. The “beat” rate for sales and earnings are still below normal levels. Next Friday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report will be released where the expected unemployment rate could be 16%. This is, as expected, a dramatic increase from the 4.4% rate posted a month ago. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
May 1, 2020
The S&P 500 was nearly unchanged this week, as stocks went up on COVID-19 treatment hopes but down on corporate earnings guidance (or really, on the lack of guidance). Many of the stocks that lagged the most rebounded strongly in the past week, and vice-versa, on hopes for a gradual reopening of the economy in many stocks. Just in the past week about 30% of the S&P 500 companies reported quarterly results, bringing the total to about 55%. The “beat” rate for sales and earnings are still below normal levels. Next Friday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report will be released where the expected unemployment rate could be 16%. This is, as expected, a dramatic increase from the 4.4% rate posted a month ago. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
April 24, 2020
The S&P 500 lost more than 1% this week but the VIX, a volatility index, declined. Oil futures (for May delivery) traded in negative territory for the first time ever this week. With supply increasing and demand falling in recent weeks, oil in storage has been building up, resulting in few places for oil to go. This sent the price so low that contract holders had to pay someone else to take delivery. The June futures contract briefly traded as low as $6.50 per barrel but has since recovered to over $17. So far in this earnings season, 24% of the S&P 500 companies have reported last quarter’s earnings and the “beat” rate for sales and earnings are well below normal levels, and many companies have suspended forward guidance. Next week will be heavy with reports from very large companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, and Facebook. Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims report posted over 4.4 million new claims, which was less than last week’s 5.2 million and the prior week’s 6.6 million new claims. The Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report is usually the first Friday of the month, but for the month of April, it will be published on May 8th. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
April 24, 2020
The S&P 500 lost more than 1% this week but the VIX, a volatility index, declined. Oil futures (for May delivery) traded in negative territory for the first time ever this week. With supply increasing and demand falling in recent weeks, oil in storage has been building up, resulting in few places for oil to go. This sent the price so low that contract holders had to pay someone else to take delivery. The June futures contract briefly traded as low as $6.50 per barrel but has since recovered to over $17. So far in this earnings season, 24% of the S&P 500 companies have reported last quarter’s earnings and the “beat” rate for sales and earnings are well below normal levels, and many companies have suspended forward guidance. Next week will be heavy with reports from very large companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, and Facebook. Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims report posted over 4.4 million new claims, which was less than last week’s 5.2 million and the prior week’s 6.6 million new claims. The Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report is usually the first Friday of the month, but for the month of April, it will be published on May 8th. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
April 17, 2020
The S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% this week, and the stock market seemed calmer with the entire week’s trading range being only 5%. The VIX, a volatility index, looked to close below 40 on a weekly basis for the first time since February. While bond yields, currencies, and gold also had relatively smaller changes this week, West Texas Intermediate crude oil went below $18 per barrel, to its lowest price in 18 years, as global oil supply has far outpaced demand. Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims report posted over 5.2 million new claims, which was less than last week’s 6.6 million new claims, but still totals over 20 million in the past 4 weeks of the COVID-19 crisis. We will soon have our next webinar on Tuesday, April 21: Coping with Covid-19 – Small Business Q&A. Please see our Events tab above to register. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
April 17, 2020
The S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% this week, and the stock market seemed calmer with the entire week’s trading range being only 5%. The VIX, a volatility index, looked to close below 40 on a weekly basis for the first time since February. While bond yields, currencies, and gold also had relatively smaller changes this week, West Texas Intermediate crude oil went below $18 per barrel, to its lowest price in 18 years, as global oil supply has far outpaced demand. Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims report posted over 5.2 million new claims, which was less than last week’s 6.6 million new claims, but still totals over 20 million in the past 4 weeks of the COVID-19 crisis. We will soon have our next webinar on Tuesday, April 21: Coping with Covid-19 – Small Business Q&A. Please see our Events tab above to register. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
April 10, 2020
The markets were open through Thursday this week and were closed for Good Friday. The S&P 500 had its best week since 1974, gaining 12.1%. This week, we have entered a new “bull market”, meaning the S&P 500 is up more than 20% from its closing low on March 23rd. From the record high close on February 19th to the closing low on March 23rd, the S&P 500 was down 33.8% over the span of 33 calendar days. From March 23rd through April 9th, the market is up 24.8%. This week, the Federal Reserve announced a new $2.3 trillion program that will invest in loans that aid small and mid-sized businesses, state and local governments, commercial mortgage-backed securities and more. This came at the same time the weekly initial jobless claims report showed another 6.6 million new claims, bringing the 3-week total to 16.8 million. Next week, companies will start reporting first quarter results, and we will be looking for up-to-date commentary about March and April trends. Thank you to all who joined our most recent webinar, Strategies for Your Investments in Turbulent Times. Replays of this webinar, our Small Business Stimulus webinar, and our Individuals Stimulus webinar are available in the Events tab above. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
April 10, 2020
The markets were open through Thursday this week and were closed for Good Friday. The S&P 500 had its best week since 1974, gaining 12.1%. This week, we have entered a new “bull market”, meaning the S&P 500 is up more than 20% from its closing low on March 23rd. From the record high close on February 19th to the closing low on March 23rd, the S&P 500 was down 33.8% over the span of 33 calendar days. From March 23rd through April 9th, the market is up 24.8%. This week, the Federal Reserve announced a new $2.3 trillion program that will invest in loans that aid small and mid-sized businesses, state and local governments, commercial mortgage-backed securities and more. This came at the same time the weekly initial jobless claims report showed another 6.6 million new claims, bringing the 3-week total to 16.8 million. Next week, companies will start reporting first quarter results, and we will be looking for up-to-date commentary about March and April trends. Thank you to all who joined our most recent webinar, Strategies for Your Investments in Turbulent Times. Replays of this webinar, our Small Business Stimulus webinar, and our Individuals Stimulus webinar are available in the Events tab above. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
April 3, 2020
After what was likely month-end rebalancing into stocks with gains last week and into Monday this week, the S&P 500 lost over 4% on Wednesday (April 1st) but was down less than 3% for the week. The S&P 500 is about 10% above the closing low from March 23rd. The market for investment grade bonds continued to slowly improve and Treasury yields moved lower, with the 10-year Treasury bond yielding less than 0.6%. Weekly initial jobless claims continue to be a heavily-watched metric. Last week’s jump in initial jobless claims to 3.3 million was dwarfed by this week’s 6.6 million claims figure. There are still many who are waiting to file, so we could see another large number such as 5 million new claims next week. Thank you to all who joined our Small Business Stimulus webinar and/or our Individuals Stimulus webinar this week. Replays are available in our Events tab above. Also in our Events tab, you can sign up for our next webinar on Tuesday the 7th, Strategies for Your Investments in Turbulent Times. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
April 3, 2020
After what was likely month-end rebalancing into stocks with gains last week and into Monday this week, the S&P 500 lost over 4% on Wednesday (April 1st) but was down less than 3% for the week. The S&P 500 is about 10% above the closing low from March 23rd. The market for investment grade bonds continued to slowly improve and Treasury yields moved lower, with the 10-year Treasury bond yielding less than 0.6%. Weekly initial jobless claims continue to be a heavily-watched metric. Last week’s jump in initial jobless claims to 3.3 million was dwarfed by this week’s 6.6 million claims figure. There are still many who are waiting to file, so we could see another large number such as 5 million new claims next week. Thank you to all who joined our Small Business Stimulus webinar and/or our Individuals Stimulus webinar this week. Replays are available in our Events tab above. Also in our Events tab, you can sign up for our next webinar on Tuesday the 7th, Strategies for Your Investments in Turbulent Times. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
March 27, 2020
After a decline on Monday, the S&P 500 gained more than 9% on Tuesday and gained more than 6% on Thursday, ending with a double-digit gain for the week. From Monday’s low to Thursday’s high, the market moved up 20.3%, which some started to call a bull market. However, we count our bull and bear markets on a closing basis so for now, we are counting this as an ongoing bear market. Federal Reserve actions that started last week and this week’s hopes of a $2 trillion fiscal stimulus from Congress helped stocks, bond, and commodities. As mentioned in our Market Recap last week, the typical level of weekly initial jobless claims had been around 220,000 but we were expecting a much higher number this week. Thursday, the initial jobless claims number was 3.28 million and next week’s number may hit 3 million again. We published 4 new videos today – please click the Insights tab above to view them. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
March 27, 2020
After a decline on Monday, the S&P 500 gained more than 9% on Tuesday and gained more than 6% on Thursday, ending with a double-digit gain for the week. From Monday’s low to Thursday’s high, the market moved up 20.3%, which some started to call a bull market. However, we count our bull and bear markets on a closing basis so for now, we are counting this as an ongoing bear market. Federal Reserve actions that started last week and this week’s hopes of a $2 trillion fiscal stimulus from Congress helped stocks, bond, and commodities. As mentioned in our Market Recap last week, the typical level of weekly initial jobless claims had been around 220,000 but we were expecting a much higher number this week. Thursday, the initial jobless claims number was 3.28 million and next week’s number may hit 3 million again. We published 4 new videos today – please click the Insights tab above to view them. As always, please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns; our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
March 20, 2020
The S&P 500 closed down 15% this week and 32% off its February high. Stocks, corporate bonds, and gold sold off in a continued “dash for cash”. The Federal Reserve has stepped in with various measures to keep the “plumbing” working in the fixed income markets and we look for the effects start to show in the coming days. As for COVID-19, we suspect it may be several weeks to months before the number of cases in the U.S. levels off. As a result, the impact of the virus will start to show in economic data. We anticipate a dramatic jump in weekly unemployment claims. The typical level of initial jobless claims has been 200,000-220,000. The average estimate for next week is 1.1 million and could go higher. Looking further ahead, it would not be surprising if the stock market bottoms before the peak in the number of cases or a turnaround in economic data. As the rate of increase slows in the coming months, the stock market should start to look forward to the virus becoming more controlled. Please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns. Our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
March 20, 2020
The S&P 500 closed down 15% this week and 32% off its February high. Stocks, corporate bonds, and gold sold off in a continued “dash for cash”. The Federal Reserve has stepped in with various measures to keep the “plumbing” working in the fixed income markets and we look for the effects start to show in the coming days. As for COVID-19, we suspect it may be several weeks to months before the number of cases in the U.S. levels off. As a result, the impact of the virus will start to show in economic data. We anticipate a dramatic jump in weekly unemployment claims. The typical level of initial jobless claims has been 200,000-220,000. The average estimate for next week is 1.1 million and could go higher. Looking further ahead, it would not be surprising if the stock market bottoms before the peak in the number of cases or a turnaround in economic data. As the rate of increase slows in the coming months, the stock market should start to look forward to the virus becoming more controlled. Please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns. Our team is here to help.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
March 13, 2020
The S&P 500 was down as much as much as 16% this week and as much as 26% from the February highs, officially ending the past 11-year bull market and starting a new bear market. Not only were stocks down, but gold and some bonds were down as well. Travel & Leisure industries, schools, sports and more are being impacted by COVID-19. This is a health care crisis that we hope will be temporary. As the virus spreads and as testing becomes more available in the coming weeks, we expect the number of cases to grow. We also expect the stock market to bottom well before the peak in the number of cases. If the rate of increase slows in the coming months, the stock market should start to look forward to the virus becoming more controlled. Economic growth will be low, or possibly even negative, in the first half of 2020 as extreme measures are being taken to slow the spread of COVID-19. Unemployment could increase temporarily as well. As Nicole Strbich, our Director of Financial Planning mentioned in this week’s video (click the Insights section of our website): we are here with you during this time of uncertainty, just as we have been through past periods of stress. We have a strong, knowledgeable team that is ready to help you. Please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
March 13, 2020
The S&P 500 was down as much as much as 16% this week and as much as 26% from the February highs, officially ending the past 11-year bull market and starting a new bear market. Not only were stocks down, but gold and some bonds were down as well. Travel & Leisure industries, schools, sports and more are being impacted by COVID-19. This is a health care crisis that we hope will be temporary. As the virus spreads and as testing becomes more available in the coming weeks, we expect the number of cases to grow. We also expect the stock market to bottom well before the peak in the number of cases. If the rate of increase slows in the coming months, the stock market should start to look forward to the virus becoming more controlled. Economic growth will be low, or possibly even negative, in the first half of 2020 as extreme measures are being taken to slow the spread of COVID-19. Unemployment could increase temporarily as well. As Nicole Strbich, our Director of Financial Planning mentioned in this week’s video (click the Insights section of our website): we are here with you during this time of uncertainty, just as we have been through past periods of stress. We have a strong, knowledgeable team that is ready to help you. Please call us at (937) 435-2742 with any concerns.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
March 6, 2020
This week remained volatile, but the S&P 500 lost less than 2% and stayed above last week’s lows. A volatility index, the VIX, went above 50 for only the third time in the past decade, with the other times being February of 2018 and August of 2015. This week the bond market seemed to be in control of stocks and the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield went as low as 0.66%, and the 30-year Treasury bond yield went as low as 1.21%; both were record lows. On Monday, the Federal Reserve lowered the overnight lending rate by one half of a percent to 1.09%, but the futures market expects the Fed to lower rates on March 18th again by another one half percent. Mortgage rates hit record lows, and gas prices should be falling as Brent crude oil fell to nearly $45 per barrel, the lowest in nearly 3 years. On the economic front, this week the ISM Non-Manufacturing (services) index and the monthly jobs report for February came in better than expected. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
March 6, 2020
This week remained volatile, but the S&P 500 lost less than 2% and stayed above last week’s lows. A volatility index, the VIX, went above 50 for only the third time in the past decade, with the other times being February of 2018 and August of 2015. This week the bond market seemed to be in control of stocks and the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield went as low as 0.66%, and the 30-year Treasury bond yield went as low as 1.21%; both were record lows. On Monday, the Federal Reserve lowered the overnight lending rate by one half of a percent to 1.09%, but the futures market expects the Fed to lower rates on March 18th again by another one half percent. Mortgage rates hit record lows, and gas prices should be falling as Brent crude oil fell to nearly $45 per barrel, the lowest in nearly 3 years. On the economic front, this week the ISM Non-Manufacturing (services) index and the monthly jobs report for February came in better than expected. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
February 28, 2020
This week was historic, but it was not one that we will remember fondly. We published two videos this week: Volatile Market (Monday) and Stocks Down 10% from Highs (Thursday) as well as a special Market Commentary newsletter today. Last week the Dow Jones closed near 29,000 but then the 1,000-point steps down went as follows: Monday below 28,000; Wednesday below 27,000; Thursday below 26,000; and Friday below 25,000. U.S. large cap stocks lost about 13% this week as COVID-19 (Coronavirus) started to spread into South Korea, Italy, the U.S. and other countries, stoking fears of a pandemic that would bring global economic activity to a halt. A volatility index, the VIX, hit its highest level since early 2018 and went above 45 for only the 7th time in the past 10 years. On a total return basis, the S&P 500 is still above the peaks of 2018 and at a level we last saw in early October 2019. Somewhat surprisingly, international stock indexes were down but, broadly speaking, lost less than U.S. stock indexes, and gold was down for the week. As stocks declined, bond prices increased, which sent bond yields to record lows. The 10-year Treasury yield declined to 1.13%, and the 30-year Treasury bond yield declined to 1.65%. The very short-term Fed Funds rate is currently 1.58%, and as of this writing, futures markets expect the Fed to lower rates on March 18th by one quarter to one half percent. While this of course would not combat the effects of the virus directly, it would help banks to keep lending activity robust. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
February 28, 2020
This week was historic, but it was not one that we will remember fondly. We published two videos this week: Volatile Market (Monday) and Stocks Down 10% from Highs (Thursday) as well as a special Market Commentary newsletter today. Last week the Dow Jones closed near 29,000 but then the 1,000-point steps down went as follows: Monday below 28,000; Wednesday below 27,000; Thursday below 26,000; and Friday below 25,000. U.S. large cap stocks lost about 13% this week as COVID-19 (Coronavirus) started to spread into South Korea, Italy, the U.S. and other countries, stoking fears of a pandemic that would bring global economic activity to a halt. A volatility index, the VIX, hit its highest level since early 2018 and went above 45 for only the 7th time in the past 10 years. On a total return basis, the S&P 500 is still above the peaks of 2018 and at a level we last saw in early October 2019. Somewhat surprisingly, international stock indexes were down but, broadly speaking, lost less than U.S. stock indexes, and gold was down for the week. As stocks declined, bond prices increased, which sent bond yields to record lows. The 10-year Treasury yield declined to 1.13%, and the 30-year Treasury bond yield declined to 1.65%. The very short-term Fed Funds rate is currently 1.58%, and as of this writing, futures markets expect the Fed to lower rates on March 18th by one quarter to one half percent. While this of course would not combat the effects of the virus directly, it would help banks to keep lending activity robust. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
February 21, 2020
This week the S&P 500 hit a new high but gave back most of last week’s gains. The stock market was down over 1%, most of which came on Friday after one economic indicator (PMI Composite Flash) showed surprising weakness in the services segment of the economy, some of which was related to travel and tourism. This is an early effect in the U.S. from the coronavirus in China. In-line with the “risk-off” move, the price of gold increased while interest rates declined, marking 6-month lows with the 10-year Treasury yield below 1.5%, for example. The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 1.88% intraday, marking a new low. It is worth mentioning one bright spot, however: this week’s monthly Leading Economic Indicators index update (January data) showed an improvement from the previous month and remains higher year-over-year. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
February 21, 2020
This week the S&P 500 hit a new high but gave back most of last week’s gains. The stock market was down over 1%, most of which came on Friday after one economic indicator (PMI Composite Flash) showed surprising weakness in the services segment of the economy, some of which was related to travel and tourism. This is an early effect in the U.S. from the coronavirus in China. In-line with the “risk-off” move, the price of gold increased while interest rates declined, marking 6-month lows with the 10-year Treasury yield below 1.5%, for example. The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 1.88% intraday, marking a new low. It is worth mentioning one bright spot, however: this week’s monthly Leading Economic Indicators index update (January data) showed an improvement from the previous month and remains higher year-over-year. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
February 14, 2020
This week the S&P 500 gained over 1% and it, the Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones all marked new highs. Interest rates increased only slightly but remain historically low. The latest reading on consumer sentiment remained positive while the latest Industrial Production numbers showed another small decline. This coming Monday the stock and bond markets will be closed for President’s Day. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
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February 14, 2020
This week the S&P 500 gained over 1% and it, the Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones all marked new highs. Interest rates increased only slightly but remain historically low. The latest reading on consumer sentiment remained positive while the latest Industrial Production numbers showed another small decline. This coming Monday the stock and bond markets will be closed for President’s Day. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
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February 7, 2020
This week the S&P 500 gained about 3% as coronavirus fears lessened, while international stock and small cap stock indexes gained about 2%. Today’s monthly employment report showed 225,000 jobs being added in the month of January, which was above expectations. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% as the participation rate increased and average hourly earnings were up 3.1% compared to a year ago. As corporate earnings season rolls on, about two-thirds of companies have reported. The rate of sales and earnings “surprises” are near normal levels. Late next week we are looking forward to updates on retail sales, consumer confidence, and industrial production. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
February 7, 2020
This week the S&P 500 gained about 3% as coronavirus fears lessened, while international stock and small cap stock indexes gained about 2%. Today’s monthly employment report showed 225,000 jobs being added in the month of January, which was above expectations. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% as the participation rate increased and average hourly earnings were up 3.1% compared to a year ago. As corporate earnings season rolls on, about two-thirds of companies have reported. The rate of sales and earnings “surprises” are near normal levels. Late next week we are looking forward to updates on retail sales, consumer confidence, and industrial production. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
January 31, 2020
This week the S&P 500 lost over 1.5% on continued fears around the global spread of the coronavirus. Stock market gains for the month were barely positive for the S&P 500, but losses were seen in small cap stocks and international stocks. Air travel to China has been suspended by several airlines, and the stocks of companies with significant Chinese end-market exposure were generally weaker than domestic companies. This week manufacturing economic indicators continued to show weakness, but consumer confidence remained strong, and the first read on Q4 GDP came in as expected at 2.1%. This week the Fed stayed the course with no interest rate changes, while the 10-year Treasury fell to its lowest level in over 3 months. Mortgages are correlated to this rate, and home owners and home buyers once again have an opportunity to lock in historically low rates. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
January 31, 2020
This week the S&P 500 lost over 1.5% on continued fears around the global spread of the coronavirus. Stock market gains for the month were barely positive for the S&P 500, but losses were seen in small cap stocks and international stocks. Air travel to China has been suspended by several airlines, and the stocks of companies with significant Chinese end-market exposure were generally weaker than domestic companies. This week manufacturing economic indicators continued to show weakness, but consumer confidence remained strong, and the first read on Q4 GDP came in as expected at 2.1%. This week the Fed stayed the course with no interest rate changes, while the 10-year Treasury fell to its lowest level in over 3 months. Mortgages are correlated to this rate, and home owners and home buyers once again have an opportunity to lock in historically low rates. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
January 24, 2020
This week the S&P 500 again made a new high but ended the week on a down note, showing a loss of over 1%. Friday saw the first 1% down day in over 3 months. Volatility picked up, bond yields fell, and stock prices declined in response to the growing threat of the coronavirus in China and its impact on life, travel, and commerce. Q4 corporate results continue to come in; the rate of positive “surprises” for sales and earnings are above the 5-year average. Next week we are looking forward to an economic calendar that will give updates on the consumer, housing, the Fed, and the first read on Q4 GDP. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
January 24, 2020
This week the S&P 500 again made a new high but ended the week on a down note, showing a loss of over 1%. Friday saw the first 1% down day in over 3 months. Volatility picked up, bond yields fell, and stock prices declined in response to the growing threat of the coronavirus in China and its impact on life, travel, and commerce. Q4 corporate results continue to come in; the rate of positive “surprises” for sales and earnings are above the 5-year average. Next week we are looking forward to an economic calendar that will give updates on the consumer, housing, the Fed, and the first read on Q4 GDP. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson CFA, CFP®
Director of Portfolio Management and Research
January 17, 2020
The S&P 500 ended the week at new highs after earnings season kicked off with a handful of large financial companies reporting. Market participants will be anxiously awaiting as another 43 companies in the S&P 500 are set to report next week. On Wednesday, the U.S. and China signed a $200 billion, phase one agreement, in an effort to end their 18-month trade war. While the deal was encouraging, they still have many issues to resolve. Economic data is fairly light next week. Both the equity and bond markets will be closed on Monday in observance of MLK Day. For more on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Neal Davis, CFA
Sr. Portfolio Manager & Research Analyst
January 17, 2020
The S&P 500 ended the week at new highs after earnings season kicked off with a handful of large financial companies reporting. Market participants will be anxiously awaiting as another 43 companies in the S&P 500 are set to report next week. On Wednesday, the U.S. and China signed a $200 billion, phase one agreement, in an effort to end their 18-month trade war. While the deal was encouraging, they still have many issues to resolve. Economic data is fairly light next week. Both the equity and bond markets will be closed on Monday in observance of MLK Day. For more on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Neal Davis, CFA
Sr. Portfolio Manager & Research Analyst
January 10, 2020
This week the S&P 500 again made new highs, led by Technology sector stocks, which also had strong returns in 2019. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 29,000 for the first time ever, and the price of oil fell after tensions with Iran eased late in the week. Earlier in the week an economic indicator for the services portion of the economy showed strength, while today’s jobs report showed unemployment remaining at 3.5%, despite fewer jobs being added than expected. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
January 10, 2020
This week the S&P 500 again made new highs, led by Technology sector stocks, which also had strong returns in 2019. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 29,000 for the first time ever, and the price of oil fell after tensions with Iran eased late in the week. Earlier in the week an economic indicator for the services portion of the economy showed strength, while today’s jobs report showed unemployment remaining at 3.5%, despite fewer jobs being added than expected. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
January 3, 2020
The S&P 500 made new highs again this week, but then retreated some on Friday after reports that a top Iranian general was killed. This led to some unease in the financial markets as equities sold off, with both gold and oil moving higher. We will continue to monitor events in the Middle East as tensions are on the rise. Elsewhere, economic reports were light this week, but next Friday we are looking forward to the monthly jobs report. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Neal Davis, CFA
Senior Portfolio Manager & Research Analyst
January 3, 2020
The S&P 500 made new highs again this week, but then retreated some on Friday after reports that a top Iranian general was killed. This led to some unease in the financial markets as equities sold off, with both gold and oil moving higher. We will continue to monitor events in the Middle East as tensions are on the rise. Elsewhere, economic reports were light this week, but next Friday we are looking forward to the monthly jobs report. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Neal Davis, CFA
Senior Portfolio Manager & Research Analyst
December 27, 2019
The S&P 500 made new highs again this week, gaining over 0.5% in the holiday-shortened week. The NASDAQ Composite reached 9,000 for the first time ever. For reference, the intraday peak of the NASDAQ in March of 2000 was 5,133. Economic reports were light this week and will be light again next week. The monthly jobs report that usually comes out on the first Friday of the month won’t be reported until January 10th. Interest rates have been fairly range-bound over the past two months, with the 2-year Treasury yield around 1.6% and the 10-year Treasury yield around 1.8%. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
December 27, 2019
The S&P 500 made new highs again this week, gaining over 0.5% in the holiday-shortened week. The NASDAQ Composite reached 9,000 for the first time ever. For reference, the intraday peak of the NASDAQ in March of 2000 was 5,133. Economic reports were light this week and will be light again next week. The monthly jobs report that usually comes out on the first Friday of the month won’t be reported until January 10th. Interest rates have been fairly range-bound over the past two months, with the 2-year Treasury yield around 1.6% and the 10-year Treasury yield around 1.8%. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
December 20, 2019
The S&P 500 made new highs again this week, gaining over 1% and boosting the year-to-date total return to over 30%. International and small cap stock indexes again hit new 52-week highs. This week’s economic data for the industrial economy, the consumer, and housing mostly came in-line with expectations, showing modest growth. The final read on Q3 GDP was 2.1%, as expected. Next week the stock market will close at 1pm on Christmas Eve and will be closed for Christmas Day. Economic reports and trading activity will be lighter than average. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
December 20, 2019
The S&P 500 made new highs again this week, gaining over 1% and boosting the year-to-date total return to over 30%. International and small cap stock indexes again hit new 52-week highs. This week’s economic data for the industrial economy, the consumer, and housing mostly came in-line with expectations, showing modest growth. The final read on Q3 GDP was 2.1%, as expected. Next week the stock market will close at 1pm on Christmas Eve and will be closed for Christmas Day. Economic reports and trading activity will be lighter than average. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
December 13, 2019
The S&P 500 made a new high Thursday after promising comments were made about a “Phase 1” trade deal being reached with China. International and small cap stock indexes hit new 52-week highs this week as well. Impeachment proceedings seemed to have little impact on the markets. The Federal Reserve gave a policy update, but no changes were made to short-term interest rates. Next week is heavy with economic updates for the industrial economy, the consumer, housing, and a final read on Q3 GDP which is expected to come in at 2.1%. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
December 13, 2019
The S&P 500 made a new high Thursday after promising comments were made about a “Phase 1” trade deal being reached with China. International and small cap stock indexes hit new 52-week highs this week as well. Impeachment proceedings seemed to have little impact on the markets. The Federal Reserve gave a policy update, but no changes were made to short-term interest rates. Next week is heavy with economic updates for the industrial economy, the consumer, housing, and a final read on Q3 GDP which is expected to come in at 2.1%. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
December 6, 2019
After a rough start to the week, a strong finish led to a slight gain in the S&P 500, near the recent high which came just last week. Economic reports continue to show weakness in the industrial/manufacturing part of the economy, but consumer sentiment remains strong, as does employment overall. In today’s monthly jobs report, the unemployment rate fell back to a 50-year low of 3.5%. Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will give a policy update but no change in interest rates is expected. The Fed Funds rate is currently 1.55%, within the official target range of 1.50-1.75%. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
November 15, 2019
This week the S&P 500 hit another new high, as sentiment continues to be positive towards a U.S.-China trade deal, and as potential recession indicators have improved over the past several weeks. More than 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported quarterly earnings, with sales and earnings each coming in better than expected. Interest rates remained range-bound near historically low levels and volatility has subsided for the time being. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
November 8, 2019
This week the S&P 500 hit another new high as “risk on” sectors such as Technology, Industrials, Materials, and Energy led, while “risk off” sectors such as Real Estate and Utilities declined. Most of the week’s gains came on Monday, due to more favorable comments around U.S.-China trade. On Friday, the latest read on consumer sentiment remained solid. Banks and bond markets are closed Monday in observance of Veterans Day, but the stock market will remain open. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
November 1, 2019
This week the S&P 500 gained over 1% and hit new highs. As expected, the Federal Reserve cut very short term interest rates by 0.25%, while longer-term rates in the Treasury market declined a little as well. This was the third interest rate cut by the Fed this year, and based on more balanced language in the announcement, should be the last cut for the year. Today’s monthly jobs report showed more jobs being added than expected, and the prior month’s number was revised higher as well, even though the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% from 3.5%. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
October 25, 2019
This week the S&P 500 came within a hair of a new intraday high, but the index did make a new high on a total return basis (including dividends). The S&P 500 Value Index (which includes Apple) made new highs, while the S&P 500 Growth Index did not gain as much and remained below its July peak. Next week will be heavy with earnings as about one-third of S&P 500 companies report; including Apple, Facebook, and Google. So far, third quarter earnings have not been as bad as feared, and sentiment seems to be improving around U.S.-China trade talks. Also on tap for Wednesday is likely another quarter-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
October 18, 2019
This week, several Financial and Healthcare companies kicked off earnings season, and these two sectors outperformed the S&P 500 in an up week. The U.S. dollar weakened, which helped international stock performance. Today’s monthly Leading Economic Index® (LEI) reading was lower month-over-month due to weakness in manufacturing, but importantly, the index was still higher year-over-year. Interest rates declined slightly this week, and the futures market is still expecting another quarter-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on October 30. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
October 11, 2019
After starting on a weak note due to concerns about U.S-China trade, this week the S&P 500 gained over 1% due to U.S.-China trade deal optimism, as it seems a partial deal is in the works. Several international stock indices gained even more, benefiting from both China and Brexit optimism. While banks, government offices, and the bond markets will be closed for a holiday on Monday, the stock market will remain open. On Tuesday morning and throughout the week, several financial and healthcare companies will kick off Q3 earnings season. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
October 4, 2019
Stock prices and interest rates moved lower this week on economic data that showed contraction in manufacturing and a slowing of growth in the services sector of the economy (services makes up about 80% of GDP). Today, the monthly jobs report came in just shy of expectations with 136,000 jobs being added in September, but the July and August reports were revised higher. The unemployment rate fell to a 40-year low of 3.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to nearly 1.5%, and the odds of another rate cut from the Federal Reserve at the end of October shot up to 77% in the futures market. Fed Chairman Powell speaks this afternoon as well as on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday next week. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
September 27, 2019
This week the final read on Q2 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) came in as expected, showing 2.0% economic growth. Stocks sold off a bit on Tuesday when reports surfaced that Democratic members of Congress would formally announce an impeachment inquiry of the President, but the market recovered most of those losses Wednesday. However, just before noon on Friday, stocks declined again on news that President Trump is considering limiting investments in China, including possibly delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges and by reducing U.S. government pension exposure to Chinese investments. The S&P 500 declined about 1.5% this week. Next week we will get monthly reads on manufacturing, services and job growth. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
September 20, 2019
As expected, on Wednesday the Federal Reserve cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% to a range of 1.75-2.00%. Fed Chairman Powell noted that trade tensions, weakening economies in Europe and China, and Brexit were risks (particularly for manufacturers), but the Fed also noted household spending remains strong. This week the 10-year Treasury yield, which is correlated to mortgage rates, declined to about 1.75%, which is still historically low. The stock market was down slightly, and we are still about a month from Q3 earnings season. Next week we will get a final read on Q2 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) that is expected to show 2.0% economic growth. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research
September 20, 2019
As expected, on Wednesday the Federal Reserve cut the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% to a range of 1.75-2.00%. Fed Chairman Powell noted that trade tensions, weakening economies in Europe and China, and Brexit were risks (particularly for manufacturers), but the Fed also noted household spending remains strong. This week the 10-year Treasury yield, which is correlated to mortgage rates, declined to about 1.75%, which is still historically low. The stock market was down slightly, and we are still about a month from Q3 earnings season. Next week we will get a final read on Q2 GDP (Gross Domestic Product) that is expected to show 2.0% economic growth. For more information on the markets or your portfolio, we encourage you to contact your Buckingham advisor.
Ryan P. Johnson, CFA, CFP®
Director of Equity Research